Lecture 17: Computational models: random walk simulation Instructors: Prof. Eric Grimson, Prof. John Guttag View the complete course at: ocw.mit.edu License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA More information at ocw.mit.edu More courses at ocw.mit.edu
bestcomputersprices.blogspot.com Lec 17 | MIT 6.00 Introduction to Computer Science and Programming, Fall 2008
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It's Wednesday June 14, 2006, and we are trying to get over the hump of the trading week but the worry still looms across the board. Metals have been dropping like a rock, Gold and Silver have dropped over 20% from their highs, and this is partially due to the decrease in demand from the jewelry industry and the decrease in demand from India.
India has been a big buyer of precious metals across the board, this emerging market was a big catalyst in the metals craze. Now that along with the other slipping emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, China, South Korea aka the "BRICK" countries, India has tighten their belt. So supply and demand has come into play. Those highflying metals stocks have been knocked down but we could see a slight rebound in the coming weeks.
Companies that are based in the "BRICK" countries and trade here in the United States, across the board have been evacuated from, the money flow out of these companies have caused them to slip al most on a daily basis. But it may be time to start to look at these companies again just to get a handle on those companies that were guilty by association and dragged down.
The Nasdaq has fallen for the 8th straight day, today may mark number 9 and that is something that hasn't happened since 1984. While the Standard & Poor's 500 closed at a seven month low yesterday. This is all due to concerns that the FOMC will raise interest rates, so hang in their because there are gems in this rubble that you may want to pick up, you just need to be patient.
In the alternative energy sector, you have a company that will begin trading today and they are in the Ethanol game. VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) The Company has Ethanol plants in both Iowa and South Dakota. They sell a branded fuel, VE85, at service stations in the Midwest. Now this is a pure play in the Ethanol arena, but this is one of three Ethanol companies that will be taken public shortly. Even tho ugh the initial budge has come from Capitol Hill, that is not enough to drive the investors to the frontlines of these new issues. So the timing may be wrong and these new issues just may put a ton of pressure on other publicly traded Ethanol companies once they hit the market, such as Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX).
But it could have a ripple effect and trickle down to other alternative energy companies that may be involved in the solar power arena.
Tropical Storm Alberto turned down the burners before it hit Florida yesterday and did not pose the danger than most forecasters predicted. So the storm never made it to Hurricane status, and just dumped rain on the areas near Tallahassee, Florida.
Movers and Shakers
Some major movers in yesterdays trading session included Maverick Tube Corp (NYSE: MVK), the stock soared to close up $ 16.99 at $ 62.65 after they agreed to be acquired by Tenaris (NYSE: TS) for over $ 3.19 billion or $ 65 a share. Tenar is made this an all cash deal, which made it even more attractive to the board of Maverick Tube.
Diodes, Inc (NASDAQ: DIOD) shot up to close up $ 4.94 at $ 38.39, this was based on the semiconductor company announcing that they were increasing their second quarter guidance, So they expect growth of 10-12% as opposed to about 3%, so in other words they are looking for revenue in the vicinity of approximately $ 82 million compared to first quarter revenue of $ 73.6 million. Earlier this year the stock traded up from $ 33 to hit $ 41 but once it broke that level it tried for $ 42 and then in the mid $ 43 range it hit a ceiling and fell sharply to the $ 32 range and that was on good earnings. So keep that in mind if you jump into this one as that same ceiling may still exist.
Lone Star Technologies (NYSE: LSS) traded up $ 2.94 to close at $ 46.54, now there is no news out and the stock traded almost triple the daily volume, trading close to 2.8 million sha res. Now I need to lay something out for you on this one, the last time that it traded at $ 47.55 which was on March 10, 2006, the stock shot up to $ 62.99 by mid April but came tumbling down shortly afterwards. So this may be one to look at just plan out your exit point before diving in.
Here is another stock that traded over triple their average volume, NS Group, Inc (NYSE: NSS) which traded up $ 1.21 to close at $ 45.76 on over 1.4 million shares traded. Now the company produces seamless and welded tubular steel products for the energy industry. Even though the stock traded up in the $ 48 range yesterday, I am looking at what it closed at, which is $ 45.76. The last time that it closed over $ 46.50, which was back in April, the stock shot up close to $ 52, then slipped down a bit and then traded up to the $ 55 range and then it nosedived to the $ 45 range a few weeks later. So there may be something here, you just need to be in tune to the trading on the s tock, just like Lone Star, just pick your entry and exit points before hand and stick to it.
Other stocks that made nice moves on Tuesday include Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) which traded up $ 1.35 to close at $ 36.05, Apple computer (NASDAQ AAPL) traded up $ 1.32 to close at $ 58.32, Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) traded up $ 1.25 to close at $ 52.69, Wellcare Health Plans (NYSE: WCG) traded up $ 1.18 to close at $ 49.48, Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) traded up $ 1.42 to close at $ 36.94 and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) shot up $ 2.66 to close at $ 51.69.
Under Ten
Other stocks that made moves on the upside under ten bucks include MicroFinancial (AMEX: MFI), an equipment leasing company that at one point traded in the $ 16 range but that was a long time ago, the stock traded up 19 cents to close at $ 3.59 on little to no volume. There is really no interest in the stock by the street, I just mentioned it because someone actually bought the stock.
Peru Copper (AMEX: C UP) shot up 20 cents to close at $ 4.30 on Tuesday, now this stock has traded wildly with speculation of a takeover by Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU), now as we said the company announced that Southern Copper is not the only fish in the sea. With metals hitting a bottom in this range you can expect the interest in Peru Copper to spring up again as any suitors that are out there are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment. As an investor you want to buy on rumor and sell on news, not the other way around. So expect Peru Copper to gain some interest, trade a little higher in the coming days and weeks, and you may want to look at other gold, silver and copper companies that fell from grace lately as the sell off was overdone.
Back in March NPS Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: NPSP) traded in the $ 14 range but since then it has fallen to the $ 4.95 range where it closed on Tuesday, up 15 cents. This tumble was due to federal regulators proposing a new clinical trial for their PREOS drug. Now despite their improved earnings and revenue being shown the street had no mercy on this one. At this point their negative EPS is very close to their stock price. So on the heels of that debacle the company decided to restructure, eliminating half of its staff, closing facilities and scrapping a deal that they had with Allergan to promote its chronic dry eye drug Restasis. The stock is at its 52 week low, which is also their all time low, pretty much, and the damage is done, so you may see an upward swing in the stock but not overnight. I really do not see it trading below $ 4 so the downside is limited compared to their upside potential. Do your homework on this one as it may be something to look at.
Other stocks that moved higher yesterday under ten bucks included Waster Services (NASDAQ: WSII) which traded up 12 cents to close at $ 2.92, McData Corp (NASDAQ: MCDTA) traded up 10 cents to close at $ 4.03, AVI Biopharma (NASDAQ: AVII) trade d up 9 cents to close at $ 3.39 on over 1.2 million shares traded and Bookham (NASDAQ: BKHM) which traded up 21 cents to close at $ 3.18.
Downers
Other stocks that traded down yesterday included Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) which traded down $ 8.30 to close at $ 123.43, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) which traded down $ 5.75 to close at $ 139.25, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) which traded down $ 4.35 to close at $ 98.76 and Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) which traded down $ 4.80 to close at $ 123.59. Now they are part of the financial sector that got hammered as of late, but its oversold. Investors need to start looking at the brokerage stocks again as Investment banking is changing in so many ways and trading revenue will grow in 2006. We just need to stay in tune to the industry, but these stocks should have some type of bounce today and longer term should do well.
Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) traded down $ 6.06 to close at $ 149.95 they are going to be splitting shortly.
Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) traded down $ 5.99 to close at $ 78.20 , this sell off has to do with the drop in emerging markets. This seems to be oversold but if it breaks the $ 77.66 mark it could fall into the mid $ 60 range. So just be on top of it.
Other stocks that traded down include Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) which traded down $ 4.77 to close at $ 185.25, Arcadis (NASDAQ: ARCAF) traded down $ 4.27 to close at $ 39.35 and Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) which traded down $ 4.20 to close at $ 95.51.
Now some stocks under ten bucks that received the royal smack down yesterday include Datalink (NASDAQ: DTLK) which traded down $ 1.05 to close at $ 4.96, Gold Reserve Inc (AMEX: GRZ) traded down 74 cents to close at$ 3.96, Fieldpoint Petroleum (AMEX: FPP) traded down 60 cents to close at $ 4.51, Bema Gold (AMEX: BGO) traded down 50 cents to close at $ 4.10, Miramar Mining (AMEX: MNG) traded down 43 cents to close at $ 3.16 and Transmeridian Exploration (AME X: TMY) which traded down 40 cents to close at $ 4.45.
Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Recent Analyst upgrades include Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) which was upgraded to an Overwieght from a Neutral Weight by Prudential Equity Group, Omega Financial Corp (NASDAQ: OMEF) was upgraded to a Neutral from a Sell by Janney Montgomery, Ohio Casualty (NASDAQ: OCAS) was upgraded to a Buy from a Hold by Deustch Bank Securities and Kronos Inc (NASDAQ: KRNO) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by Sidoti & Co.
Recent Analyst downgrades include Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) which was downgraded to a Hold from a Buy by Citigroup, Piedmont Natural Gas (NYSE: PNY) was downgraded to a Neutral from a Buy by Janney Montgomery, Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) was downgraded to a Market Perform from a Strong Buy by Janney Montgomery and Pacific Energy Partners (NYSE: PPX) was downgraded to a Hold from a Buy by AG Edwards.
Recent analyst coverage initiations include Global Payments (NYSE: GPN) which was initiated with a Buy rating by Janney Montgomery, Smith Micro Software (NASDAQ: SMSI) was initiated with a Buy rating and a $ 24 price target by Lazard Capital Markets and Arch Chemicals (NYSE: ARJ) which was initiated with a Buy rating by Sidoti & Co.
We cannot stress enough that investors need to do their due diligence, call the companies, get the information, consult with your investment advisor and if you do not have one consider getting one. Put the same time into investigating these companies as you do when you go to purchase a new television, it's only for your protection. When it comes to thinly traded securities stagger your orders or put a limit order in to avoid a run up.
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